Vancouver Canucks
Last place was earned, and the climb is long
Vancouver finished last in the NHL, and the underlying numbers say it deserved to. The summer sent away the team's best defensive defenseman and brought in veterans for the room. Our model has the Canucks alone at the bottom, below the sportsbooks' number, and Thatcher Demko's hip is the one thing that could change that.
The bettor's bottom line
- Alone at the bottom. E-- rating, 32nd, about 64 points over 84 games. The sportsbooks sit at 74.5. Calgary, the next team up, is a long way above.
- Filip Hronek carries the blue line. He is the only defenseman with an above-average grade, and he plays 25 minutes a night. When he sits, those minutes go to rookies and depth veterans.
- Demko is the wild card. Our projection grades him A. The rating assumes Kevin Lankinen carries the crease until Demko returns, and nobody has named a date.
- Think game by game. A 32nd-place team still wins about a quarter of its home games in regulation against an average opponent. Check the starter and the blue line before every game.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 26.1% win / 22.7% draw / 51.2% loss (3.83 / 4.41 / 1.95). On the road 20.2% win / 21.0% draw / 58.8% loss (4.95 / 4.75 / 1.70).
Three seasons ago the Canucks won the Pacific with 109 points. Last season they finished last in the league with 58. In between, the franchise lost almost everything that made that team work. Quinn Hughes went to Minnesota in December. Thatcher Demko played his last game on Jan. 10 before double hip surgery. Adam Foote was fired after one season, and Marcus Pettersson went to the Rangers this summer for a future first-round pick.
A new front office led by general manager Ryan Johnson and the Sedin twins hired Manny Malhotra, who won the Calder Cup in Abbotsford, and asked for patience. So the bettor's first question is simple. Was 58 points a lost season full of injuries and bad bounces, or is it the true level of this roster?
Our answer: mostly the true level. Vancouver was out-chanced more than almost any team in the league, and removing luck barely moves its rating. The summer took away more than it added. The model puts the Canucks alone in last place again.
The previews mostly agree on the direction. Daily Faceoff expects another top-three pick and fewer than 80 points. Yahoo's Puck Drop has Vancouver last in the Pacific, about ten points better than last season. VSiN leans under the 74.5-point total. We are a little cooler than even the pessimists. The big questions everywhere are Elias Pettersson's form, Demko's health and the young defensemen. Our short answers: a Pettersson rebound helps less than people hope, Demko is the only player who could move our number much, and the young blue line is a year or two away.
1What last season really was
Vancouver's results were bad, and its underlying play was just as bad.
| Measure | VAN | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 58 | 32nd | 8th in the Pacific |
| Goals for / against | 210 / 314 | -104 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 45.1% | 31st | Out-chanced most nights |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 44.2% | 32nd | Last in the league once shot quality is corrected |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 46.7% | 29th | Spent too much time in its own zone |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -24.4 | 29th | Cold shooters added to the slide |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | -28.3 | 32nd | +2.3 in the first half, -30.6 in the second |
Our luck-adjusted rating for last season is barely above the actual one. When a team finishes last and the chances say it should have finished last, there is little bounce-back to expect from luck alone.
The season came apart in two stages. Vancouver took 37 points from its first 41 games with roughly average goaltending, then 21 points from the last 41 while its goalies gave up 30.6 goals more than expected. Hughes left in December and Demko in January, and the second half shows what this roster looks like without either. That second-half team is closer to what starts the new season.
2How the model builds Vancouver's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is last, by a distance. Measured on chances, Vancouver was the weakest team in the league, and luck explains almost none of its finish.
The roster moves are the biggest push down. Last season's total still included half a season of Hughes. This season has none of him and none of Marcus Pettersson, the team's best defensive defenseman on our grades. The additions are veterans for depth roles and the dressing room.
Youth pulls the other way. Vancouver is the sixth-youngest lineup in the league, and young teams tend to improve from one season to the next. That is the main push upward.
Finishing and goaltending are close to neutral. Over three seasons the shooting and goaltending have swung both ways, so the model gives no lasting credit or penalty.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leevi Meriläinen | G | Goalie | Ottawa | 20 GP · -17.3 GSAx | D- | Small. A 24-year-old waiver claim from Ottawa after a rough season. The club sees him as more than a stopgap while Demko is out. |
| Paul Cotter | C | Energy / physical | New Jersey | 79 GP · 9 G · 15 P | E+ | Small. An energy forward moved to fourth-line center when Chytil got hurt. |
| Jamie Oleksiak | D | Physical depth | Seattle | 78 GP · 5 G · 15 P | C- | Small plus. A big penalty killer who steadies Tom Willander on the second pair. |
| Brendan Gallagher | RW | Net-front depth | MTL (trade) | 77 GP · 7 G · 23 P | C+ | Small plus. Net-front veteran from Montreal, brought in as much for the room as for his game. |
| Luke Schenn | D | Physical depth | Buffalo | 50 GP · 1 G · 7 P | E | None. A physical depth defenseman back for a third stint in Vancouver, at 36. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Pettersson | D | Shutdown / PK | NY Rangers | 82 GP · 3 G · 18 P | B- | Real loss. The best defensive defenseman on the roster by our grades, traded to the Rangers for a future first. |
| Evander Kane | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | UFA, unsigned | 71 GP · 13 G · 31 P | D | Small. Thirteen goals and a team-high 92 penalty minutes. Still unsigned. |
| Nils Hoglander | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Nashville | 38 GP · 2 G · 5 P | C | Small. A middle-six forward who never found his scoring touch again. |
| Teddy Blueger | C | Defensive C / PK | Toronto | 35 GP · 9 G · 17 P | B | Small loss. A defensive center and penalty killer, on a unit that needed him. |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph | D | Sheltered puck mover | Carolina | 31 GP · 1 G · 6 P | D- | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Curtis Douglas | C | Net-front depth | Seattle | 14 GP · 1 G · 2 P | E+ | None. Depth forward. |
Net: a weaker roster than the one that finished last. Vancouver lost its best shutdown defenseman and a penalty-killing center, and replaced them with veterans in depth roles.
The Hughes trade in December brought back Marco Rossi, Liam Ohgren and Zeev Buium. A full season of those three is a plus. It does not replace a full season of Hughes, and the half season of him inside last year's total is gone.
The coach is a small minus. Malhotra has never been an NHL head coach. First-year coaches start near neutral in our model, with a slight discount until their teams show something.
The result is an E-- team, 32nd in the league, projected for about 64 points. No other team is close: Calgary, 31st, rates well above Vancouver, and Chicago, Seattle and Nashville are further up again. The sportsbooks' 74.5 is kinder than our number. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold our view loosely. The first month will show whether Malhotra's structure moves the chances.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
The top six has two real centers. Elias Pettersson grades B+ and Marco Rossi B. The first question is whether Pettersson finds his old form after 51 points in 74 games. Our grades already rate him the best skater on the team. A rebound would lift the top line, but one center cannot carry a roster graded near the bottom of the league at every position. Jonathan Lekkerimaki won the top-line wing in camp, and Jake DeBrusk's 23 goals led the forwards.
The bottom six is the weak spot. Chytil's injury pushes Max Sasson into the third-line center job and Paul Cotter into the fourth. Sasson, Arshdeep Bains and Cotter all grade in the E range. Gallagher adds a net-front presence, but these lines will spend a lot of time in their own zone.
The blue line is Hronek and hope. Filip Hronek grades B- and plays top-pair minutes in every situation. Zeev Buium, 20, signed an eight-year extension and is the defenseman the franchise is built around, but he grades C for now. Tom Willander and Elias Nils Pettersson are 21 and 22 and still grade D- and E. Previews expect the kids to step up, and some growth is part of the youth bonus in our rating. Oleksiak and Schenn are there to absorb hard minutes, not to drive play.
4Who matters most
Fans will watch Elias Pettersson. Our research points to the blue line. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their minutes go to someone worse when they sit. Vancouver has one defenseman who plays like a top-pair defenseman. When Hronek is out, his minutes go to a rookie pair or a 36-year-old.
The same logic applies to the two top centers. With Chytil hurt, the drop from Pettersson or Rossi to the next center in line is steep. On game day, check Hronek and the centers first.
5Goaltending: waiting on Demko
Demko started last season well, 7.4 goals above expected in his first seven games in October. Then his hip gave out. He last played on Jan. 10 and had double hip surgery in February. Lankinen took over and finished below expected in every month of the season. Vancouver's goaltending ranked last in the league.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen | -1.0 (5) | -2.1 (9) | -1.0 (5) | -0.2 (11) | -6.7 (3) | -2.9 (10) | -5.5 (4) | -19.4 |
| Nikita Tolopilo | +0.2 (2) | +2.0 (2) | +1.3 (5) | -0.3 (1) | -6.7 (6) | -4.0 (5) | -7.5 | |
| Thatcher Demko | +7.4 (7) | -4.1 (3) | +2.9 (7) | -4.3 (3) | +1.9 |
Most previews treat Demko's return as the season's hinge, and we agree. Our projection grades him A, the best goalie in the organization by a wide margin. The team says he is "cautiously progressing" but will start on injured reserve, and he has not yet faced NHL shooters. The rating assumes Lankinen, a D on our projection, starts most games until Demko is back.
Leevi Meriläinen, claimed off waivers from Ottawa on Sept. 25, backs up for now. He had a hard year in Ottawa, but he is 24, and the club sees him as a longer-term piece. Last season's goaltending was the worst in the league, and even a D-grade tandem projects better than that. For bettors, a healthy Demko would change a Vancouver price more than any skater. Watch the injured reserve list and confirm the starter.
6Vancouver's system: how they score and defend
Manny Malhotra takes his first NHL head coaching job after winning the 2025 Calder Cup with Abbotsford. His camp was built on intensity and pace, and local coverage compares his approach to Rod Brind'Amour's. He has drawn a line between losing games and playing losing hockey. His structure will need to fix the part of Vancouver's game that failed worst: defending its own zone.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | no NHL history | First NHL head coaching job; won the 2025 Calder Cup in Abbotsford |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | n/a | No NHL sample yet |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | n/a | No NHL sample yet; camp focus on defending |
| Blocked shots per 60 | n/a | No NHL sample yet |
| Hits per 60 | n/a | No NHL sample yet |
| Coach value beyond the roster | First-year coach | No NHL record; new coaches start near neutral, with a slight discount |
| Measure | VAN | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 202 | 238 | 3rd fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,331 | 3,470 | 10th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.0% | 85.4% | 12th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.6% | 2.7% | 16th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 14.4% | 13.1% | 10th highest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 60.9% | 54.1% | 3rd highest |
| Goals on the power play | 28.2% | 23.1% | 3rd highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 290 | 238 | 1st most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,681 | 3,470 | 5th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 34.0% | 31.6% | 4th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.0% | 8.1% | 15th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 12.4% | 13.1% | 14th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 22.8% | 23.1% | 14th lowest |
Offense: rebounds and the power play. Vancouver took fewer shot attempts than most teams and scored the third-fewest goals in the league. What offense it had came from close in: the most rebound attempts in the league, a large share of goals from the slot and the third-largest share scored on the power play. It had to scrape for goals at five-on-five.
Defense: stuck in its own zone. Vancouver allowed the most goals in the league, the fifth-most shot attempts and the fourth-most attempts from the slot. Opponents rarely needed the rush. They beat Vancouver with sustained zone time and chances in front. That is a coverage problem, which is where a new coach's structure shows up first.
What it means for scoring. Vancouver's games averaged 6.39 total goals last season: 2.56 for and 3.83 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings rank both the offense and the defense 31st going into 2026-27. The two cancel out on totals: overall event level ranks 17th, so expect close-to-average scoring with lopsided scores.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.31 | 9th | 7.97 | 8th | 4.3 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 10.00 | 31st | 8.33 | 30th | 4.1 |
The two units point in opposite directions. The power play ranked ninth in goals and eighth in chances, so its results were earned. The penalty kill ranked 31st in goals against and 30th in chances allowed.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake DeBrusk | PP1 | Net-front finisher | 24 PP points; 19 PP goals, 3rd in the NHL |
| Elias Pettersson | PP1, PK1 | Playmaker, also kills | 22 PP points; 0:49 shorthanded per game |
| Filip Hronek | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 20 PP points; 2:07 shorthanded per game |
| Brock Boeser | PP1 | The shooter | 17 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| Marco Rossi | PP1 | Bumper and passer | 12 PP points |
| Zeev Buium | PP2 | Second-unit quarterback | 11 PP points |
| Jamie Oleksiak | PK1 | New size on the back end | 1:35 shorthanded per game with Seattle |
| Drew O'Connor | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:01 shorthanded per game |
| Luke Schenn | PK2 | New shot blocker | 1:30 shorthanded per game with Buffalo |
How the power play works. DeBrusk is its best weapon: 19 power-play goals last season, third in the league. Pettersson and Hronek move the puck, Boeser shoots from the flank, and Rossi, a midseason arrival from Minnesota, works the middle. Buium, who came in the same trade, runs the second unit.
Built to last. A unit that ranked top ten on both goals and chances is not a fluke, and it keeps all of its regulars. The main question is Chytil, who starts on injured reserve and would give the second unit a center when he returns.
How the penalty kill works. This is the problem. Losing Marcus Pettersson and Blueger takes two of its regulars, and the chances allowed were already among the worst in the league. Oleksiak and Schenn add size and shot blocking on the back end, and Hronek, the top-unit quarterback on the power play, kills penalties too.
What to watch. Goaltending, above all. With Demko out after hip surgery and no timeline, the penalty kill loses the one player who could hide its chances. Expect the kill to stay a weakness and the power play to stay a strength.
8What would change our view
- Demko's returnA healthy Demko for half a season would lift the rating more than any skater could.
- Zone defense under MalhotraIf slot attempts against fall toward league average by November, the structure is working and the rating climbs.
- Hronek's healthHe is the only above-average defenseman. Losing him for a stretch would push this team further down.
- Chytil's timelineWeek-to-week. His return moves Sasson back to depth and gives the middle six a real third center.
- The young defenseFaster growth from Buium and Willander is the most likely source of an upside surprise.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.