Pittsburgh Penguins
Last season was real. The clock is too.
Pittsburgh's return to the playoffs was earned on the ice, not in the shooting luck column. But the goalies who steadied it are gone, the depth thinned out, and the core is the oldest in the league. Our model has the Penguins as a fringe team, roughly where the sportsbooks have them, for different reasons than the crowd.
The bettor's bottom line
- A fringe team, priced about right. C- rating, 21st in the league, about 87 points over 84 games. The books sit at 89.5. We have no quarrel with the total, only with some of the reasons behind it.
- The old guard still carries it. Crosby, Malkin, Karlsson and Letang have combined for well over 70 NHL seasons. The rating depends on how long they hold up, and the drop-off behind them is steep.
- The weakest crease in our projection. Both goalies grade in the bottom fifth of NHL goalies. The two who kept Pittsburgh afloat last season now play elsewhere.
- Start short-handed, finish open. Rust, Kindel, Brazeau, Lizotte and Kuzmenko all miss the opener. Pittsburgh games ran half a goal above the league average last season, and our scoring ratings expect that again.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 40.0% win / 23.3% draw / 36.7% loss (2.50 / 4.28 / 2.72). On the road 32.4% win / 23.4% draw / 44.2% loss (3.08 / 4.28 / 2.26).
The Penguins' season ended on April 29 in Philadelphia, 1-0 in overtime of Game 6. They had lost the first three games of the series, won the next two, and came within a shot of forcing a Game 7. Five months later they open the new season in the same building, against the same team.
Getting there was the surprise of the East. Under first-year coach Dan Muse, a roster widely expected to sit out a fourth straight spring finished second in the Metropolitan with 98 points. The bettor's question is the usual one after a jump like that: was it real, or was it a lucky season that the market should fade?
Our answer is that it was real, and that it matters less than it seems. Pittsburgh out-chanced its opponents all season, and its results matched its play almost exactly. The problem is what came after. The two goalies who covered for Arturs Silovs are gone, the team's top goal scorer left in free agency, and a core that was already the oldest in the league is a year older.
That puts us close to the crowd on the number and apart on the reasons. Eight of ten Daily Faceoff panelists leave Pittsburgh out of the playoffs, and VSiN's preview leans the same way, mostly because of the goaltending. We agree the crease is a real weakness, but we see the older, thinner roster as the bigger drag. ESPN's bold call is that Sergei Murashov turns out to be the real deal. Our projection is not there yet, though he is the one worth watching.
1What last season really was
Pittsburgh's 98 points were backed by the underlying numbers.
| Measure | PIT | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 98 | 10th | 2nd in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 290 / 258 | +32 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 51.2% | 9th | Top ten, earned |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 51.3% | 9th | Same after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 50.5% | 12th | A little above even |
| Finishing, goals above expected | +17.6 | 3rd | First plus year in five |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +1.2 | 17th | +0.8 in the first half, +0.3 in the second |
On chances, Pittsburgh was a top-ten team, and its luck-adjusted rating lands almost exactly on its actual one. The results were steady too: 49 points in each half of the season. This was a good team, not a hot streak.
The one number to handle with care is finishing. After four straight seasons below expected goals, some of them far below, the Penguins scored well above it last season. One good year after four poor ones looks more like a peak than a new level, and Anthony Mantha's 33 goals left with him. The goaltending, 17th in the league, was average only because Tristan Jarry and Stuart Skinner covered for a weak year from Silovs.
2How the model builds Pittsburgh's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is above average. Measured on chances rather than results, Pittsburgh was a solid playoff-level team last season, no different from its standings finish.
Age is the biggest pull down. No team in the league has an older lineup. Crosby is 39, Malkin 40, Letang 39, Karlsson 36, van Riemsdyk 35 and Rust 34. Older teams tend to decline the next season, and this effect is the single largest reason the rating falls.
The roster got thinner. Mantha, the team's leading scorer, and two regular defensemen, Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea, all left. The replacements are cheaper and grade lower. Few teams lost as much lineup quality this summer.
Finishing and the crease are small minuses. Three seasons of shooting and goaltending together come out slightly below average. Losing Skinner, the better of last season's goalies by our numbers, costs a little more.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Robertson | LW | Sniper | Toronto | 78 GP · 16 G · 32 P | D- | Small. A streaky shooter handed Crosby's wing after a strong camp. His all-around numbers in Toronto were modest. |
| Kaedan Korczak | D | Sheltered puck mover | Vegas | 78 GP · 3 G · 16 P | C+ | Small. Big right shot who played a full season on Vegas's third pair. |
| Hendrix Lapierre | C | Net-front depth | Washington | 74 GP · 4 G · 16 P | E | Small. Depth center from Washington, pushed up to the third line by the injuries. |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | D | Shutdown / PK | Washington | 68 GP · 3 G · 14 P | B | Useful. Steady veteran who kills penalties and partners Letang. |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Los Angeles | 52 GP · 13 G · 25 P | B- | Upgrade when back. A power-play scorer signed to replace some of Mantha's goals. Away from the team after a death in his family. |
| Declan Carlile | D | Physical depth | Tampa Bay | 42 GP · 1 G · 3 P | D- | Question mark. A depth defenseman in Tampa Bay, now slotted next to Karlsson on the top pair. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha | RW | Sniper | New Jersey | 81 GP · 33 G · 64 P | B- | Real loss. Led the team with 33 goals and played in every situation. |
| Ryan Shea | D | Two-way top pair | Edmonton | 80 GP · 6 G · 35 P | B+ | Loss. Played 80 games in the top four and moved the puck well. |
| Parker Wotherspoon | D | Shutdown / PK | Vegas | 80 GP · 3 G · 30 P | B- | Real loss. A top-four shutdown defenseman who played 80 games last season. |
| Noel Acciari | C | Defensive C / PK | Philadelphia | 67 GP · 13 G · 25 P | C+ | Small loss. Checking center and penalty killer, now with the Flyers. |
| Connor Clifton | D | Physical depth | Boston | 50 GP · 2 G · 6 P | C | Small. Physical depth defenseman. |
| Kevin Hayes | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Retired | 28 GP · 4 G · 8 P | C- | None. Played 28 games, then retired in September after a short stint in the KHL. |
| Stuart Skinner | G | Goalie | Winnipeg | 27 GP · +8.1 GSAx | B- | Easy to overlook. Well above expected after arriving midseason. His departure is a big reason the crease grades last in the league. |
| Jack St. Ivany | D | Physical depth | Winnipeg | 20 GP · 0 G · 7 P | C | None. Depth defenseman. |
| Joona Koppanen | C | Defensive C / PK | Lulea (SHL) | 13 GP · 0 G · 1 P | n/a | None. Depth center, now in Sweden. |
| Mathew Dumba | D | Physical depth | UFA, unsigned | 11 GP · 1 G · 3 P | n/a | None. Contract terminated in April. |
Net: a clear step back. Pittsburgh lost its top scorer, two top-four defensemen and its best goalie, and replaced them with cheaper players who grade lower. Kuzmenko is the one addition with real scoring punch, and he starts the season away from the team.
Two midseason pickups soften the blow a little. Egor Chinakhov arrived from Columbus in January and gave the second line a shooter, and Samuel Girard came from Colorado in February. A full season of both helps the second line and the third pair, but neither replaces Mantha or Wotherspoon on its own.
The coach is neutral. Dan Muse's first season is already built into the starting point, and one year is too little to credit him with more.
The result is a C- team, 21st in the league, projected for about 87 points. That puts Pittsburgh between Washington and Anaheim, and seventh in the Metropolitan in our order, ahead of only the Islanders. The books are within a couple of points of us, so this is a team to price game by game, not a season-long position.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Crosby is still the engine. At 38 he scored 74 points in 68 games and still grades B+, the best skater on the roster. Rickard Rakell grades B beside him. Nick Robertson gets the other wing after a strong camp. Our grade for him is low, built on fourth-line minutes in Toronto, so this is the spot where a real breakout would show up first.
The injuries hit the middle of the lineup. Rust, a 29-goal scorer, and Ben Kindel, a 19-year-old who scored 17 as a rookie and already grades as a two-way top center, are both out week to week. That pushes Hendrix Lapierre and Rutger McGroarty onto the third line and leaves Ville Koivunen, fresh off a long extension, with a bigger role than planned. For the first weeks this is a weaker team than its rating.
Malkin on the wing. Muse has Malkin at right wing next to Tommy Novak and Egor Chinakhov. He scored 61 points in 56 games at 39, and the second line's scoring depends on how many games he can play in the last year of his contract.
The blue line is the weak spot. Karlsson, with 66 points, is still an elite puck mover, but his partner Declan Carlile was a depth player in Tampa Bay. Letang, at 39, now grades as a sheltered puck mover rather than a top-pair defenseman. By our grades, the top four ranks near the bottom of the league.
4Who matters most
Fans will watch Crosby and Malkin, and they matter most on the scoresheet. For the nightly price, the less obvious names are the defensemen. Big-minute defensemen matter more than their point totals suggest, because their ice time goes to someone worse when they sit. Pittsburgh has almost no depth behind Karlsson, Letang and Girard, so a missed game by any of them is felt right away.
The same logic runs through the forwards once Rust and Kindel return. This roster's problem is depth, not stars, so every absence pushes a fringe player into real minutes. On game day, check who is out on the blue line first.
5Goaltending: the cover is gone
Pittsburgh used four goalies last season. Tristan Jarry was solid through December before he was traded to Edmonton, Stuart Skinner arrived and was well above expected, and Arturs Silovs, who played the most, finished well below it. Skinner signed with Winnipeg this summer. What is left is Silovs and Sergei Murashov, a 22-year-old with five NHL games.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs | +3.4 (6) | -4.3 (6) | -3.8 (5) | +0.8 (7) | +2.5 (3) | -5.6 (8) | -4.7 (4) | -11.7 |
| Sergei Murashov | -0.8 (4) | -2.8 (1) | -3.6 | |||||
| Stuart Skinner | +0.2 (4) | +6.8 (8) | -0.7 (2) | +2.9 (9) | -1.1 (4) | +8.1 | ||
| Tristan Jarry | +4.1 (6) | -0.8 (4) | +2.2 (4) | +5.5 |
The month-by-month table tells the story: Silovs had a good October and a good February, and was below expected in most other months, including the stretch run. His playoff series against Philadelphia was his best hockey of the year, and that is the version the Penguins are counting on. Our projection gives far more weight to the full regular season, and it grades him E.
Murashov is the story of camp. He was dominant in the AHL, ESPN expects him to take the job by the new year, and most previews see him as Pittsburgh's best hope in net. We give him credit for the minor-league numbers, but young goalies with almost no NHL record get pulled hard toward average, and his five NHL games were rough. He grades D-, a little better than Silovs. If he plays like his AHL self, this is where the rating moves most.
As a pair, this is the weakest goaltending in the league in our projection, and that is already in the rating. The split should be close to even early on, with 15 back-to-back sets on the schedule. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Pittsburgh's system: how they score and defend
Muse's first season showed a clear, simple style: keep the puck a little more than the opponent, get to the slot, and skip the hitting. Only one team scored more goals than Pittsburgh, and only one took a larger share of its shots from the slot. The defense was close to league average in almost everything. That makes the Penguins a team that wins by out-scoring, not out-checking.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (one season with Pittsburgh) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.3 SD | A few more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.1 SD | League average |
| Blocked shots per 60 | +0.3 SD | Blocks slightly more than average |
| Hits per 60 | -1.1 SD | Few hits |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | One season of data; no measurable boost or drag yet |
| Measure | PIT | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 274 | 238 | 2nd most |
| Shot attempts | 3,573 | 3,470 | 9th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.7% | 85.4% | 10th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.5% | 2.7% | 10th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 10.2% | 13.1% | 5th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 56.9% | 54.1% | 5th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 23.0% | 23.1% | 16th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 244 | 238 | 9th most |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,507 | 3,470 | 15th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.6% | 31.6% | 16th lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 12.7% | 13.1% | 16th lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 20.9% | 23.1% | 8th lowest |
Offense: the slot, not the rush. Pittsburgh took shots from the most dangerous area far more often than most teams and rarely scored off the rush or rebounds. The goals came from set plays and skill around the net, which suits Crosby and Malkin but also depended on a finishing year that is unlikely to repeat in full.
Defense: fine structure, thin personnel. Opponents got few rebounds and an average share of slot shots. The system held up last season; the question is whether it holds with Carlile and Korczak playing big minutes.
What it means for scoring. Pittsburgh's games averaged 6.68 total goals last season: 3.54 for and 3.15 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry much of that into 2026-27: a top-five offense, a defense just below the middle, and one of the two most open matchup profiles in the league.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.09 | 11th | 7.79 | 11th | 4.4 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 6.27 | 7th | 6.16 | 2nd | 4.6 |
Both units were above average last season. The power play ranked 11th by goals and by chances, and the penalty kill was one of the best in the league at keeping chances down, second only to one team.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby | PP1 | Bumper and finisher | 21 PP points; 9 PP goals |
| Erik Karlsson | PP1, PK1 | Quarterback at the point | 20 PP points; 1:49 shorthanded per game |
| Evgeni Malkin | PP1 | Half-wall playmaker | 19 PP points |
| Rickard Rakell | PP1 | The shooter | 12 PP points; 7 PP goals |
| Connor Dewar | PK1 | Forward pressure | 2:35 shorthanded per game |
| Kris Letang | PK1 | Veteran on the back end | 1:04 shorthanded per game |
| Samuel Girard | PK1 | Puck mover under pressure | 0:53 shorthanded per game |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | PK2 | New shutdown defender | 1:38 shorthanded per game with Washington |
How the power play works. It still runs through the franchise names. Crosby had 21 power-play points and nine goals, working the middle and the net front, and Malkin sets up from the half-wall. Karlsson quarterbacks from the top with 20 power-play points, and Rakell is the shooter. The fifth spot is open while Rust is hurt.
Short-handed to start. Rust, Kindel and Brazeau are all out week to week, and Kuzmenko is away. That strips depth from both units at once, and it puts even more of the power play on four veterans in their thirties.
How the penalty kill works. Dewar is the forward workhorse, and the defense mixes veterans: Letang, Girard, a deadline pickup from Colorado, and van Riemsdyk, who arrives from Washington. Losing Acciari and Wotherspoon takes two regular penalty killers out of the group, which is a lot for a unit whose strength was structure.
What to watch. The penalty kill early in the season. With its regulars gone or hurt, it is the part most likely to slip toward the middle, while the power play should stay useful as long as its stars stay healthy.
8What would change our view
- MurashovA strong first month would lift the weakest crease in our projection and move the rating more than any skater could.
- The injury listRust and Kindel back by mid-October and Kuzmenko rejoining the team would give Pittsburgh a real third line again.
- The oldest core in the leagueCrosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson all in the last year of their contracts. A long absence for any of them changes the season.
- Robertson on the top lineIf his camp carries over next to Crosby, the top six looks deeper than our grades say.
- The top pairCarlile next to Karlsson is the biggest leap of faith in the lineup. A trade for a real top-four defenseman would help.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.