A playoff team that won the close ones

In late January the Flyers looked like a team heading for another spring off. They had lost 13 of 18, their backup goalie was in the middle of a disastrous month, and they sat eight points out of a playoff spot. Then came the Olympic break, an 18-7-1 finish, 98 points, and a first-round win over Pittsburgh before Carolina swept them in Round 2.

So the question for bettors is the familiar one. How much of that was a young team arriving, and how much was a hot spring and a lot of close games going Philadelphia's way?

Our answer sits in the middle. The Flyers were a real above-average team on chances, and Tocchet's structure is the kind that carries over. But they won more games in overtime and shootouts than anyone, and on a luck-adjusted basis they played like a team worth fewer points than they got. The summer changed little in the skater group. The biggest move was in goal, and it helps.

That makes us a little cooler than the local crowd. Both Inquirer beat writers pick a playoff return, at 99 and 103 points. MoneyPuck's model and the sportsbooks land around 93, where we are, and VSiN leans to Philadelphia missing, pointing at those overtime wins. The summer talking points were Porter Martone's Calder case, a Matvei Michkov bounce-back after a benching, a power play that finished last, and whether Vladar can do it again. We think the power play is the easiest of those to fix, and the goalie question matters less than it looks, because the backup got much better.

1What last season really was

Philadelphia was a solid team on chances last season, though not as good as its record.

The Flyers took fewer shot attempts than almost anyone and still won the expected-goals battle, because Tocchet's system trades volume for quality at both ends. That pattern is a coaching choice and tends to carry over.

The part that will not repeat is the close games. Philadelphia's 98 points came with a league-high 16 wins in overtime or the shootout, and those are close to coin flips over a season. The January slide was mostly about the net: the backups gave up goals at a rate no team can survive, while Vladar held up.

2How the model builds Philadelphia's ranking

Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.

The starting point is average, a notch under the record. Measured on chances and with the extra-time wins treated as luck, Philadelphia played like a middle-of-the-pack team, a bit below its standings finish.

Youth is a plus. The Flyers have one of the younger lineups in the league, and young teams tend to improve. Martone is 19, Michkov 21, Zegras 25.

The history is a drag. For five straight seasons Philadelphia has finished below its expected goals and gotten goaltending below average. Last season came close to neutral on finishing, but one good year does not erase four bad ones, and our model still expects some of the old gap. This is the biggest pull downward.

The roster is mostly the same. Few core players left. The additions were depth pieces, plus a full season of Tyson Foerster, who missed 49 games, and of Martone. On our numbers the changes net out close to even.

Summer moves: in and out

Net: the same skaters, a better backup goalie. On paper Philadelphia is a little stronger than last season, almost all of it in net.

Two players count almost like additions. Foerster scored 13 goals in 29 games before his injury, and Martone put up 10 points in nine games after joining from college. A full season of each adds real scoring to a team that needs it. David Jiricek, acquired from Minnesota late last season, starts as the seventh defenseman.

Goalies and coach barely move it. The Woll trade is a clear plus in our numbers, while Tocchet is in his second year and his measured effect is close to average, so he gets no extra credit.

The result is a C team, 16th in the league, projected for about 91 points. That puts Philadelphia just behind Detroit and Utah and level with Columbus, right on the edge of the Eastern playoff race and within about two points of where the sportsbooks have it. A repeat of last season is possible, but it would need the close games to break the same way again.

Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.

Reading the lineup

The top line is built around Zegras. Trevor Zegras grades B (76) after career highs of 26 goals and 67 points, and he starts at center between Owen Tippett and Martone. Martone is the Calder talking point: a 19-year-old power forward who already looked at home in nine games and a playoff series. We expect a good rookie year. Rookies rarely move a team's results much in year one, so we do not build the rating around him.

The weak spot is finishing. Philadelphia gets to the slot as often as almost anyone and scores from it less than almost anyone. Tippett is the one pure shooter. Michkov, benched at times last season, starts on the third line with Christian Dvorak; the popular 70-point bounce-back call is possible, but he will need power-play time to get there.

The depth is honest. Noah Cates grades A- (85) as a two-way center and anchors a third line with Foerster and Travis Konecny, who led the team with 68 points. Sean Couturier, 33, now centers the fourth line and still grades B. Few teams have a fourth-line center that good.

The blue line is the strength. Travis Sanheim grades A- (89), the best player on the roster in our numbers, after career highs in goals and plus-minus, with 24 minutes a night. Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam York and Jamie Drysdale make a solid top four. The third pair of Nick Seeler and Simon Benoit is physical and limited, which is why Jiricek will get looks.

4Who matters most

Fans talk about Martone, Michkov and Zegras. Our absence research points to the back end. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their minutes go to someone worse, and Philadelphia's depth behind the top four is thin. For this team, Sanheim and York are the names to check on game day.

Up front the value is spread out. There is no single forward whose absence sinks the Flyers, which makes them steadier than most teams when a forward sits.

5Goaltending: the starter everyone knows, the backup that matters

Dan Vladar was the story of the season: a longtime Calgary backup who got his first real starting job and won 29 games, drew Vezina votes and was named team MVP. He was even better in the playoffs, and he signed an extension through 2031 in July. Behind him it fell apart. Samuel Ersson's January, in the months table, is the midseason slide in one line.

The common view is that Philadelphia's season rides on Vladar repeating, and Daily Faceoff ranks the tandem eighth. We are less sure about the repeat and less worried about it. Our projection weighs three seasons, and Vladar's earlier years were weaker, so he grades C- as a middle-of-the-pack starter. Joseph Woll grades B- on the strength of better years before a poor season in Toronto. Goalies coming off one great year usually give some of it back.

The real gain is in the other 30 or so starts. Last season those nights went to Ersson and Aleksei Kolosov, both well below average. Now they go to a goalie our projection rates at least as highly as the starter. As a whole, Philadelphia's goaltending ranks near the middle of the league, and the change from last season is a plus that is already in the rating. Vladar left a preseason game with an upper-body injury but is set for opening night. When Woll starts, the price should barely move.

6Philadelphia's system: how they score and defend

Rick Tocchet's teams have a clear signature: fewer shots at both ends, more hits, and games played at a low pace. His first year in Philadelphia fit the mold. The Flyers took fewer shot attempts than almost anyone, allowed few, and played in some of the lowest-scoring games in the league.

Offense: the right spots, the wrong results. Philadelphia rarely scored off the rush and took few shots overall, but a large share of its attempts came from the slot. The problem was converting them: few teams scored a smaller share of their goals from there, and only a few scored less on the power play.

Defense: few chances, one leak. The Flyers kept opponents out of the slot and allowed fewer rebound chances than almost anyone. The soft spot was the rush, where they gave up more attempts than most teams.

What it means for scoring. Flyers games averaged 5.84 total goals last season: 2.93 for and 2.91 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27: a below-average offense, a top-ten defense and one of the three lowest-event profiles in the league. Expect tight, low-scoring games until the finishing improves.

7Special teams

The power play finished next to last in goals, but its chances were closer to the middle of the league, so bad finishing did more damage than bad design. The penalty kill shows the same gap in reverse: it allowed chances at a better-than-average rate and still gave up too many goals.

How the power play works. Zegras was the one bright spot, with 10 power-play goals in his first season in Philadelphia. Michkov runs the half-wall, Drysdale moves the puck from the top, and the rookie Martone gets a look in front of the net. Foerster, who shoots from the flank, had only two power-play points last season, so his spot on the top unit is a bet on his shot.

Youth over experience. Michkov and Martone are still at the start of their careers, and Konecny, the team's most experienced scorer, starts on the second unit. That is a lot of trust in young players for a group that finished 31st. The chances were there last season; the finishing was not.

How the penalty kill works. Sanheim is the workhorse, with more than three shorthanded minutes a night, fifth most in the league, and York is right behind him. Couturier and Dvorak take the faceoffs and pressure up front. The unit kept chances down better than most, and the goals against ran well ahead of them.

What to watch. Both units should improve without a single change, because both underperformed their chances. Tocchet's teams also tend to draw more power plays than average, which gives the young top unit more time to find its finish.

8What would change our view

• Finishing in the slotIf Martone, Tippett and a healthy Foerster turn slot chances into goals at a normal rate, this becomes a clear playoff team.
• Vladar's first monthA second season near last year's level would lift the rating. Our projection expects some regression.
• The Woll splitIf Woll takes more than a third of the starts and holds up, the depth in goal becomes an asset.
• The top four on defenseAn injury to Sanheim or York exposes a thin third pair.
• The power playThe easiest place to find goals. A move to the middle of the league is worth several points in the standings.
• Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.