New York Rangers
Two missed springs, and a roster built to end them
The Rangers finished 29th, traded Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, and still look better on paper than a year ago. Our model has them near the playoff line with one of the best goalies in the world behind a rebuilt blue line. The sportsbooks are more pessimistic than we are.
The bettor's bottom line
- Better than the price. C+ rating, 12th in the league, about 95 points over 84 games. The sportsbooks sit at 88.5. We see a bubble team, not a lottery team.
- Everything runs through Fox and Shesterkin. Without both last winter, New York went 2-11-0. They are the two players the nightly price depends on most.
- The backup gap is wide. Shesterkin grades A+, Joonas Korpisalo D. On nights the backup starts, this is a different team.
- Low-event hockey. Rangers games ran below the league average in goals last season, and our scoring ratings still see one of the quieter matchup profiles in the NHL.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 44.3% win / 23.4% draw / 32.3% loss (2.26 / 4.28 / 3.09). On the road 36.8% win / 23.3% draw / 39.8% loss (2.72 / 4.28 / 2.51).
For the first two months of last season the Rangers could not score at Madison Square Garden. They lost their first seven games at the Garden, a franchise record, and by the end of the year they had taken fewer points at home than on the road. Then came January. Igor Shesterkin and Adam Fox went down together, the team lost 11 of 13, and by the deadline Chris Drury had traded Artemi Panarin to Los Angeles.
A 77-point season and a second straight spring without playoffs followed. Over the summer Drury traded Trocheck, paid a first-round pick for Pavel Dorofeyev, added Marcus Pettersson and Sean Durzi to the blue line and drafted Alberts Smits fifth overall. So the question for bettors: is this a team in decline, or a good team that lost its two best players at once?
Our answer leans toward the second. Last season's underlying play was weak, and we do not wave that away. But the roster is clearly stronger than the one that finished the year, the goalie is still elite, and the market is pricing the standings more than the lineup.
That makes us warmer than the crowd. NHL.com's staff picks leave the Rangers out of the Metropolitan's top three, Daily Faceoff calls a third-place finish the ceiling, and VSiN's only confident bet is on them missing the playoffs. We agree on the risks everyone names: Trocheck's hole at center, two 33-year-old centers carrying the forwards, a team that could not win at home. We part ways on how much the summer fixed. A top four of Fox, Gavrikov, Pettersson and Durzi is a different blue line from last season's, and the previews give it a sentence where we give it most of the upgrade.
1What last season really was
Bad luck explains little of last season. The Rangers were outplayed at even strength and saved by their goalie until he got hurt.
| Measure | NYR | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 77 | 29th | 8th in the Metropolitan |
| Goals for / against | 235 / 249 | -14 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 46.9% | 27th | Out-chanced most nights |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 47.5% | 26th | Slightly better after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 48.4% | 25th | Bottom-eight shot share |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -2.2 | 17th | Close to average finishing |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +19.4 | 7th | +21.7 in the first half, -2.3 in the second |
This is a team that used to beat its expected goals every year. From 2021-22 to 2023-24 the Rangers finished 10 to 16 goals above expected each season. That edge disappeared over the last two years, and with it the margin that made a middling shot share into 110-point seasons. Our model gives shooting talent credit only when it persists, so the old finishing edge is mostly gone from the rating.
The goaltending has not moved. The Rangers have been among the best teams in the league at stopping pucks in each of the last five seasons, and Shesterkin had them above expected in every month he played. The collapse came in the second half: goaltending fell from well above expected to slightly below while Shesterkin was out and Jonathan Quick struggled in January. That part is unlikely to repeat with a healthy starter.
2How the model builds New York's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is low. Measured on chances rather than results, the Rangers were a bottom-eight team last season, about where the standings put them.
The roster moves are the big push up. Few teams added as much lineup quality this summer. Dorofeyev is a 37-goal scorer in his prime, and Pettersson is a solid shutdown defenseman. With Durzi, the top four on defense goes from thin to one of the deepest in the East. Trocheck is a real loss, but the trade-off is clearly positive.
The goalie adds a steady bonus. Several seasons of elite goaltending earn credit that most teams do not get, and the backup job moving from a retiring 40-year-old to Korpisalo is a small plus.
Age is roughly neutral. Zibanejad and Miller are 33, but the rest of the core is in its mid-20s, and the lineup is a little younger than the league average.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo | G | Goalie | Boston | 31 GP · -1.0 GSAx | D | Small plus. A below-average backup on our numbers, but a steadier bet than the goalie he replaces. |
| Marcus Pettersson | D | Shutdown / PK | Vancouver | 82 GP · 3 G · 18 P | B- | Clear upgrade. A big-minute shutdown defenseman who kills penalties. The piece Mike Sullivan asked for. |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | RW | Sniper | Vegas | 82 GP · 37 G · 64 P | B+ | Clear upgrade. 37 goals in Vegas and signed for seven years. The finisher this lineup lacked after Panarin left. |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | RW | Playmaker | Tampa Bay | 80 GP · 12 G · 32 P | C+ | Small. A playmaking veteran on a one-year deal, starting next to Miller and Dorofeyev. |
| Eeli Tolvanen | RW | Energy / physical | Seattle | 78 GP · 12 G · 36 P | C+ | Small. A shooter who brings a physical edge to the third line. |
| Joseph Veleno | C | Energy / physical | Montreal | 61 GP · 2 G · 5 P | n/a | None. Fourth-line center on a one-year deal. Seven points in two seasons of depth work. |
| Sean Durzi | D | Sheltered puck mover | Utah | 60 GP · 5 G · 27 P | C | Upgrade. A right-shot puck mover who plays second-pair minutes and runs the second power-play unit. |
| Alberts Smits | D | Sheltered puck mover | Draft, No. 5 overall | No NHL games last season | C- | The wild card. A 6-foot-4 teenager who won a third-pair job in camp. His grade is an estimate from European numbers. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Borgen | D | Shutdown / PK | Boston | 75 GP · 5 G · 15 P | E+ | Small loss. A physical third-pair defenseman, replaced by a deeper group. |
| Vincent Trocheck | C | Two-way top C | Utah | 67 GP · 16 G · 53 P | B | Real loss. A two-way center who won faceoffs and killed penalties. Miller now carries the second line alone. |
| Conor Sheary | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Buffalo | 62 GP · 7 G · 18 P | D | None. Depth winger. |
| Jonny Brodzinski | C | Middle-six all-rounder | Washington | 55 GP · 6 G · 16 P | E- | None. Depth center. |
| Adam Edstrom | C | Net-front depth | Nashville | 35 GP · 3 G · 5 P | D- | None. Big fourth-liner, traded for a prospect. |
| Jonathan Quick | G | Goalie | Retired | 25 GP · -6.4 GSAx | n/a | None. A Hall of Fame career that ended with a rough final winter. Retired in April. |
| Brett Berard | LW | Energy / physical | Montreal | 13 GP · 0 G · 0 P | n/a | None. Traded for a depth defenseman. |
Net: a stronger lineup than the one that finished last season. The Rangers swapped a second-line center for a first-line finisher and turned their weakest area, the second defense pair, into a strength. Center depth is thinner.
The table leaves out the biggest move of all. Panarin was traded to Los Angeles at the deadline, so his production is part of last season's totals but not this lineup. Dorofeyev is the direct replacement. He does not create like Panarin, but he is about ten years younger and a better pure goal scorer at this stage.
The coach is neutral. Mike Sullivan starts his second season, and opening night is the 1,000th game of his head-coaching career. His Pittsburgh teams measured close to average once the rosters are accounted for, and his first year in New York did not change that picture.
The result is a C+ team, 12th in the league, projected for about 95 points. That puts New York next to the playoff line and several points above the sportsbooks' total. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold that view loosely. The gap comes from the roster: we count the summer additions more than the market does. Everyone agrees on the risk. Two injuries at the wrong time sank last season, and this roster still has no answer for losing Fox or Shesterkin.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
Two real scoring lines. Zibanejad scored 34 goals last season and grades A-, with Lafreniere and Gabe Perreault on his wings. The new second line puts Dorofeyev, the best finisher on the roster, next to J.T. Miller. The common worry is that his 37 goals came with Vegas's centers. Some regression is likely, but he still grades B+ here and is a clear upgrade on the wing. Sullivan kept the top line together from last season on purpose.
The weak spot is down the middle. Without Trocheck, the third and fourth lines are centered by Noah Laba and Joe Veleno, both below-average grades. Zibanejad and Miller are both 33, an age when most centers start to slow down. An injury to either pushes a depth center into a job he cannot hold.
The depth has bite, not goals. Cuylle, Tolvanen, Kartye and Matt Rempe make a heavy bottom six that will hit and kill penalties. Scoring from it will be rare.
The blue line is the story. Fox grades A+ and is the best player on the team. He had 53 points in 55 games last season, and the Norris talk is fair if he stays healthy. Pettersson and Gavrikov both grade B-. That gives New York a top four inside the league's top ten, built on Fox. Smits and Braden Schneider make a young third pair that will be sheltered.
4Who matters most
Every fan knows the Rangers' season depends on Shesterkin. Our absence research puts Fox right next to him. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their minutes go to someone worse. Last January showed it in the standings: without both of them, the Rangers allowed well over four goals a game.
The deeper blue line helps here. With Pettersson and Durzi in, losing one defenseman no longer drops a third-pair player into top-four minutes. Up front, Dorofeyev and Zibanejad matter most, but the price moves less for any forward than for Fox.
5Goaltending: the one thing that never broke
Shesterkin blamed himself for the lost season. The numbers disagree. He was above expected in every month he played through March, and the team's collapse lined up with the weeks he was out. The problem was behind him: Quick's January and a stretch of Spencer Martin cost the Rangers more goals than any skater.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin | +2.2 (9) | +6.5 (12) | +3.8 (11) | +3.1 (2) | +1.0 (2) | +5.8 (11) | -1.2 (4) | +21.2 |
| Jonathan Quick | +2.1 (3) | +3.5 (3) | +0.8 (4) | -13.6 (9) | +1.8 (1) | -1.6 (3) | +0.5 (2) | -6.5 |
| Spencer Martin | -4.1 (6) | -4.1 |
Shesterkin grades A+ in our projection, among the top handful of goalies in the league, and the Rangers' goaltending as a whole ranks third. Vezina picks follow him again this fall, and we have no quarrel with them. That is already part of the rating, and the market knows it too. What bettors need is a clear picture of the team without him.
Korpisalo should get 20 to 25 starts, and the gap to the starter is large: he grades D. He was close to average in Boston last season but has had rough years before, and at 32 there is little upside. With 11 back-to-back sets on the schedule, that workload looks right. Dylan Garand, who stopped nearly everything in three late-season starts, was put on waivers and is the emergency option if he clears. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6New York's system: how they score and defend
Sullivan's first season changed how the Rangers defend. They allowed the third-fewest shot attempts from the slot in the league and limited odd-man rushes. The offense did not follow. New York took fewer shots than most teams and scored less than average at even strength.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean (measured mostly with Pittsburgh) |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.5 SD | Slightly more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.2 SD | Slightly fewer shots against |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.2 SD | Few blocks: prevention over collapsing |
| Hits per 60 | -0.0 SD | Neutral |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | Measured with the Penguins' rosters; no measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | NYR | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 223 | 238 | 11th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,275 | 3,470 | 8th fewest |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 86.0% | 85.4% | 6th highest |
| Attempts off the rush | 2.4% | 2.7% | 8th lowest |
| Goals off rebounds | 11.7% | 13.1% | 13th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 54.7% | 54.1% | 15th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 26.0% | 23.1% | 9th highest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 226 | 238 | 10th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,556 | 3,470 | 13th most |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 29.0% | 31.6% | 3rd lowest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 8.5% | 8.1% | 10th highest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 18.6% | 13.1% | 1st highest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 23.0% | 23.1% | 15th lowest |
Offense: patient but thin. The Rangers took the sixth-highest share of settled shots in the league and few rush or rebound chances. That is a team that works the puck but does not create chaos around the net. Dorofeyev, a pure shooter, adds the finishing touch this group lacked.
Defense: good structure, bad second chances. Opponents rarely got to the slot, but no team gave up a larger share of its goals on rebounds. That points to net-front coverage after the first save. More size and a better second pair should help.
What it means for scoring. Rangers games averaged 5.90 total goals last season: 2.87 for and 3.04 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27: a bottom-ten offense on volume and a middle-of-the-pack defense, which makes New York one of the lower-scoring matchups on the schedule.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 8.74 | 4th | 8.76 | 3rd | 4.1 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 7.29 | 18th | 7.58 | 19th | 4.7 |
The power play was one of the few things that worked last season, top five in the league both in goals and in the quality of its chances. The penalty kill was middle of the pack on both counts.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mika Zibanejad | PP1 | One-timer from the flank | 31 PP points, 8th in the NHL; 16 PP goals, 5th in the NHL |
| Pavel Dorofeyev | PP1 | New finisher | 29 PP points, 12th in the NHL; 20 PP goals, 2nd in the NHL with Vegas |
| Adam Fox | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 23 PP points; 5 PP goals |
| J.T. Miller | PP1 | Bumper and playmaker | 17 PP points; 6 PP goals |
| Alexis Lafreniere | PP1 | Net front | 13 PP points; 9 PP goals |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | PP2 | Second-unit shooter | 14 PP points; 9 PP goals with Tampa Bay |
| Eeli Tolvanen | PP2 | Second-unit shooter | 12 PP points; 5 PP goals with Seattle |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | PK1 | Top killer on defense | 2:25 shorthanded per game |
| Braden Schneider | PK1 | Physical killer | 2:16 shorthanded per game |
| Will Cuylle | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:28 shorthanded per game |
| Noah Laba | PK1 | Young center, faceoffs | 1:10 shorthanded per game |
| Marcus Pettersson | PK2 | New shutdown defender | 2:34 shorthanded per game with Vancouver |
How the power play works. Zibanejad's one-timer is still the centerpiece: 16 power-play goals last season, fifth in the league. Fox runs it from the top, and Miller works the middle as a passer and a shooter. The big change is up front. Panarin and Trocheck are gone, and Dorofeyev arrives from Vegas after scoring 20 power-play goals, second in the league. He replaces a playmaker with a pure finisher.
Why it should stay good. A unit that ranked top five on chances as well as goals was not riding luck. Losing Panarin takes away a passer, but Fox and Miller can carry that load, and with Zibanejad and Dorofeyev the unit has two shooters penalty killers cannot both cover. The second unit, with Bjorkstrand and Tolvanen, is deeper in shooters than last season's.
How the penalty kill works. Gavrikov and Schneider take the heavy minutes on the back end, with Cuylle and the young Laba up front. The key addition is Pettersson from Vancouver, who played more than two and a half shorthanded minutes a night there. He should help the kill more than any other summer move.
What to watch. How quickly Dorofeyev fits. Finishers depend on the passers around them, and he scored his goals in a different system. If he clicks early, the power play stays a real strength; if not, the Rangers lose some of their best way to win close games.
8What would change our view
- Fox and ShesterkinHealthy, this is a playoff-bubble team or better. Losing either for a month changes our view more than anything else could.
- Home iceTen of the first 17 games are at Madison Square Garden, where the Rangers took fewer points than on the road last season. A good start there would mark last season's home drought as a slump.
- Dorofeyev and MillerIf the new second line clicks, New York has two real scoring threats for the first time since Panarin left.
- Rebounds againstIf the rebound goals drop toward average, the defense is working as designed and the rating climbs.
- Center depthAn injury to Zibanejad or Miller would expose Laba and Veleno. Watch for a trade.
- Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.