Los Angeles Kings
Better than their record, older than their rivals
Los Angeles controlled play well enough for a stronger season than 90 points, then lost Anze Kopitar to retirement and hired Peter Laviolette. Our model sees an average team with a good top line, a thin blue line and an age problem. The sportsbooks see about the same.
The bettor's bottom line
- An average team, priced like one. C- rating, 20th in the league, about 92 points over 84 games. The books sit a little higher at 95.5. We see a bubble team in the Pacific with no clear edge on the season.
- Byfield is the price. With Kopitar gone, Quinton Byfield is the No. 1 center, and behind him the middle is thin. A long absence from him moves our number more than any other skater's.
- Forsberg is the better bet in goal. Our projection grades Anton Forsberg C+ and Darcy Kuemper D-. The Kings plan a 1A / 1B split, so confirm the starter before you bet.
- Expect tight, low-scoring games. Kings games had among the fewest goals in the league last season, and a record 20 of them ended in overtime or shootout losses. Our scoring ratings see the lowest-event team in the league again.
- Fair regulation price against a league-average opponent: at home 41.1% win / 23.4% draw / 35.6% loss (2.44 / 4.28 / 2.81). On the road 33.5% win / 23.4% draw / 43.1% loss (2.98 / 4.27 / 2.32).
Anze Kopitar's last NHL game was a 5-1 loss in Colorado in April, the fourth in a first-round sweep in which the Kings scored five goals. It was a fitting end to a strange season. Los Angeles fired Jim Hiller on March 1, traded for Artemi Panarin, set an NHL record with 20 losses after regulation and still made the playoffs for a fifth straight spring, with 90 points and a 35-27-20 record.
The summer brought a new coach in Laviolette, a new captain in Drew Doughty and two veterans on short deals, Mats Zuccarello and Erik Haula. It did not bring a replacement for Kopitar. So the bettor's question: was last season's 90 points the real Kings, or a better team that lost too many coin flips?
Our answer is both. The Kings played like a playoff team last season: they out-shot and out-chanced most of the league. They lost points in two ways that do not carry over, the overtime record and a cold stretch in goal, and one way that does, poor finishing. Then they got older and lost their best two-way center.
That puts us a shade cooler than the crowd. Daily Faceoff sees a 95-to-100-point team and another first-round exit, and the books sit at 95.5. The common view is that Laviolette was hired to fix the offense and special teams, that Byfield must become a true No. 1 center, and that this is one of the oldest rosters in the league. We agree on Byfield and on age, which is the biggest drag in our rating. We are less sure a coaching change fixes scoring. The Kings created plenty last season. They did not finish.
1What last season really was
The Kings finished 20th in points. By shot share and expected goals they were a top-third team.
| Measure | LAK | NHL rank | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standings points | 90 | 20th | 4th in the Pacific |
| Goals for / against | 220 / 238 | -18 goal differential | |
| Expected-goals share, all situations (MoneyPuck) | 51.0% | 11th | Top-third on chances |
| Expected-goals share, our shot-type recalibration | 50.6% | 13th | Slightly lower after recalibration |
| Score-adjusted shot-attempt share | 51.9% | 8th | Top-eight shot share |
| Finishing, goals above expected | -29.0 | 31st | Second-worst finishing |
| Goaltending, goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +0.9 | 19th | +12.3 in the first half, -11.4 in the second |
Three things separate the process from the result. The Kings scored far fewer goals than their chances deserved, second-worst in the league. They went 13-20 in games decided after regulation, which is mostly luck. And their goaltending went from well above expected in the first half to well below it in the second. Strip out the overtime coin flips and the goaltending swing, and last season's team rates a little above average. That is the starting point for our rating.
The finishing is the part that does not wash out. Los Angeles has scored below its expected goals in four of the last five seasons, and a team that keeps doing it usually keeps doing it. The Kings also had a strange split: they took more points on the road than at home. That kind of gap rarely repeats.
2How the model builds Los Angeles's ranking
Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.
The starting point is a little above average. Measured on chances rather than results, the Kings were a playoff-caliber team last season, better than their 20th-place finish.
Age is the biggest push down. Only a few teams are older. Zuccarello is 39, Corey Perry 41, Doughty 36 and Haula 35, with Kuemper 36 in goal. Older teams tend to decline over a full season, and the Kings' age takes more off the rating than anything else.
The roster moves roughly break even. A full season of Panarin, plus Zuccarello's playmaking, about offsets the loss of Kopitar in our numbers. Kevin Fiala starting the season on injured reserve tips it slightly negative.
Finishing and goaltending cancel out. Poor finishing over the last three seasons pulls down, and goaltending that has been a bit better than expected pulls up. The net is close to zero.
Summer moves: in and out
| Player | Pos | Role | From | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula | C | Defensive C / PK | Nashville | 81 GP · 14 G · 38 P | C+ | Small. A veteran center who kills penalties, on a two-year deal. Starts on the third line while Fiala is out. |
| Mats Zuccarello | RW | Playmaker | Minnesota | 59 GP · 15 G · 54 P | B+ | Upgrade. Still a top-six playmaker at 39, with 54 points in 59 games in Minnesota. One year at a low price. |
| Player | Pos | Role | To | 2025-26 | Grade | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anze Kopitar | C | Two-way top C | Retired | 67 GP · 12 G · 38 P | A | Real loss. Retired after 20 seasons. Still an A two-way center who took the hardest matchups and the key faceoffs. |
| Jeff Malott | LW | Net-front depth | Anaheim | 58 GP · 3 G · 9 P | D | None. Fourth-line winger, signed in Anaheim. |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | LW | Middle-six all-rounder | Pittsburgh | 52 GP · 13 G · 25 P | B | Small loss. A middle-six scorer with 13 goals, now in Pittsburgh. |
| Jacob Moverare | D | Sheltered puck mover | Switzerland | 15 GP · 0 G · 0 P | n/a | None. Depth defenseman, gone to Switzerland. |
| Mathieu Joseph | RW | Energy / physical | Edmonton | 12 GP · 0 G · 0 P | C | None. Depth forward, now in Edmonton. |
Net: a stronger wing and a weaker middle. The Kings added two veterans who can still play in the top nine and lost the center who held the lineup together. Scott Laughton, a trade deadline pickup, and Erik Gustafsson, a depth defenseman, round out the group.
The table leaves out the biggest addition. Panarin arrived from the Rangers in February and played 26 games for Los Angeles, with 27 points. A full season of him on Byfield's wing makes this lineup stronger than last season's totals suggest. Perry is also back: traded to Tampa Bay at the deadline, he re-signed for one more year in July.
The coach is neutral. Laviolette brings 1,594 games behind NHL benches and a 2006 Stanley Cup. Over that career his teams have measured close to average once the rosters are accounted for, so the hire moves our rating very little.
The result is a C- team, 20th in the league, projected for about 92 points. That is a bubble team in the West. In the Pacific the Kings sit in a pack behind Vegas and Edmonton, close to the teams fighting for the last playoff spots. The books are about three points higher, and we have no strong view either way on the season total.
3The projected lineup
Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.
Reading the lineup
A top line built for the season. Byfield grades A (90) after 24 goals and a full season on the top line, Panarin A- (89) and Kempe B- (69) after 36 goals. Our player ratings put the Kings' top six fifth in the league. Byfield's step from good second center to No. 1 is the most important development in Los Angeles this season, and the common view is right to put it first.
The second-line center is the hole. Alex Turcotte, in the last year of his deal, centered Zuccarello and Laferriere in camp. He grades C and has three NHL goals last season. Haula is the fallback. Until Fiala returns, the second line leans on a 39-year-old playmaker and a young net-front winger.
Depth is honest, not dangerous. Trevor Moore grades B (78) and plays everywhere. Armia, Perry, Laughton and Samuel Helenius will check and kill penalties more than score.
The blue line is the weak spot. Our ratings rank the Kings' defense 25th. Brandt Clarke grades A- (89) as the power-play quarterback, Doughty B (74), and Mikey Anderson (B+) is a solid shutdown partner. Behind them, Edmundson, Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci are 32 to 35 and grade C- or lower. The Kings allowed few shots anyway last season, but an up-tempo coach will ask more of this group.
4Who matters most
Fans will watch Panarin. Our absence research points at Byfield and the top-four defensemen. Byfield plays the hard minutes now, and the next center in line is a big step down. The Kings have no second Kopitar to cover a Byfield injury.
On defense, Doughty, Anderson and Clarke play the most. Defensemen who play big minutes matter more to the nightly price than their profile suggests, because their minutes go to someone worse. In Los Angeles the someone worse is a veteran third pair that already struggles.
5Goaltending: the backup who took the job
Kuemper opened last season in good form and was above expected through December. Then January went badly and never fully recovered. Forsberg, the backup, was the better goalie in December, January and April and started all four playoff games against Colorado, where the Kings lost despite his .909 save percentage.
| Goalie | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg | -1.5 (4) | -0.0 (4) | +4.4 (7) | +6.0 (5) | -0.8 (5) | -4.6 (5) | +6.0 (6) | +9.5 |
| Darcy Kuemper | +2.6 (8) | +3.6 (9) | +3.8 (6) | -6.4 (12) | -4.4 (2) | +0.5 (10) | -5.6 (3) | -5.9 |
The previews mostly agree Forsberg earned the first look, and our numbers agree. Forsberg grades C+ after 9.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx, goals prevented compared with an average goalie facing the same shots) in 36 games. Kuemper grades D- after a .891 season at 35, and goalies at 36 rarely rebound. Forsberg is also 33 and has never held a full starter's workload, so the projection shrinks his good season toward average.
As a group, the Kings' goaltending ranks near the bottom of the league in our projection, and that is already in the rating. Erik Portillo, the third goalie, went to the AHL. For bettors, a Forsberg start is the better version of this team. Confirm the starter before you bet.
6Los Angeles's system: how they score and defend
Laviolette's reputation is up-tempo, aggressive hockey, and his teams do shoot a bit more and hit more than average. The Kings he inherits played a controlled game: lots of shots, few against and very few goals either way. The question is whether a new coach adds offense without opening the back door.
| Measure | Value | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Archetype | Mild possession lean | Mild possession lean |
| Own shot attempts per 60 | +0.3 SD | Slightly more shots than average |
| Shot attempts against per 60 | -0.1 SD | About average shots against |
| Blocked shots per 60 | -0.0 SD | Average blocks |
| Hits per 60 | +0.6 SD | Physical: above average |
| Coach value beyond the roster | About average | Measured over a long career with Carolina, Philadelphia, Nashville, Washington, the Rangers and the Islanders; no measurable boost or drag |
| Measure | LAK | League avg | Rank of 32 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | |||
| Goals (non-empty net) | 210 | 238 | 6th fewest |
| Shot attempts | 3,592 | 3,470 | 7th most |
| Attempts from settled play (not rebound, rush or quick pass) | 85.1% | 85.4% | 13th lowest |
| Attempts off the rush | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2nd highest |
| Goals off rebounds | 11.0% | 13.1% | 9th lowest |
| Goals from inside 20 feet | 55.2% | 54.1% | 13th highest |
| Goals on the power play | 21.0% | 23.1% | 12th lowest |
| Defense | |||
| Goals allowed (non-empty net) | 224 | 238 | 8th fewest |
| Opponent shot attempts | 3,376 | 3,470 | 11th fewest |
| Share of opponent attempts from inside 20 feet | 31.7% | 31.6% | 15th highest |
| Rebound attempts allowed | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10th lowest |
| Goals allowed off rebounds | 9.4% | 13.1% | 1st lowest |
| Goals allowed while shorthanded | 29.9% | 23.1% | 1st highest |
Offense: plenty of shots, few goals. The Kings took the seventh-most shot attempts in the league and got more of them off the rush than almost anyone. They still scored the sixth-fewest goals, with few from rebounds. That is a finishing problem more than a system problem.
Defense: good in structure, weak on the kill. Opponents took fewer attempts than against most teams, and almost none of the goals against came off rebounds. The weak spot was the penalty kill: no team gave up a larger share of its goals against on the power play.
What it means for scoring. Kings games averaged 5.59 total goals last season: 2.68 for and 2.90 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27: an offense near the bottom of the league, a defense in the top ten and the lowest-event games in the league. A more aggressive coach may lift that a little, but expect low totals until the numbers show otherwise.
7Special teams
| Unit | Goals | Rank | Expected goals | Rank | Minutes / game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power play (for) | 5.46 | 30th | 6.27 | 29th | 4.3 |
| Penalty kill (against) | 8.89 | 30th | 7.83 | 21st | 4.4 |
Both units were among the league's worst. The power play ranked 30th in scoring rate and 29th in chances. The penalty kill allowed goals at the third-worst rate, though its chances against were closer to the middle of the league.
| Player | Unit | Job | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artemi Panarin | PP1 | The playmaker | 22 PP points |
| Mats Zuccarello | PP1 | New half-wall passer | 14 PP points with Minnesota |
| Brandt Clarke | PP1 | Quarterback at the point | 13 PP points |
| Quinton Byfield | PP1 | Net front, bumper | 10 PP points |
| Adrian Kempe | PP1 | The shooter | 9 PP points |
| Erik Haula | PP2, PK1 | New two-way center | 12 PP points; 1:57 shorthanded per game with Nashville |
| Joel Edmundson | PK1 | Shot blocker | 2:17 shorthanded per game |
| Cody Ceci | PK1 | Second-pair killer | 1:54 shorthanded per game |
| Joel Armia | PK1 | Forward pressure | 1:21 shorthanded per game |
| Mikey Anderson | PK2 | Shutdown defender | 2:09 shorthanded per game |
How the power play works. It now runs through two veteran passers. Panarin, a midseason arrival last year, had 22 power-play points, and Zuccarello arrives from Minnesota with a long record of setting up his linemates from the half-wall. Clarke gives the unit a young point man, Kempe is the shooter, and Byfield uses his size in the middle. On paper, it is a far more creative group than the one that finished 30th.
Chances first. The problem last season was not finishing. The unit created too little, 29th in expected goals. That makes it a personnel and structure question, which is exactly what a full season of Panarin and the addition of Zuccarello address.
How the penalty kill works. Anderson and Edmundson do the heavy lifting on the back end, blocking shots and clearing the net front, and Haula arrives from Nashville as a two-way center who kills penalties. The chances allowed were closer to average than the goals, which points to goaltending more than structure.
What to watch. Both units have room to improve without any luck. The power play because of the new passers, the penalty kill because its goals against ran ahead of its chances. Neither needs to be good for the Kings to gain ground; merely average would be a clear step up.
8What would change our view
- Byfield as the No. 1 centerIf he handles the top matchups and faceoffs without Kopitar next to him, the lineup holds together. If not, the drop to the next center is steep.
- Forsberg's first 15 startsA true starter's season from him would lift the weakest part of the rating. A Kuemper-heavy workload would pull it down.
- Fiala's returnTargeted around November 1. He completes the top six and fixes the second line.
- FinishingThe Kings have created enough chances for years. If they convert at a normal rate, they are a comfortable playoff team.
- An old roster in the second halfSeveral key players are 35 or older. Watch for fading form and injuries after New Year's.
- Laviolette's tempoIf the Kings' games open up, their low totals and their strong defensive numbers both change. Watch shots against in October.