Priced for a Cup run, rated for the middle

For two springs the Oilers were the last team standing in the West. Last spring they won Game 1 against Anaheim, lost the next three, and were gone in six. It was their earliest exit since 2021. By July the club had a new head coach in Mike Babcock, six years out of the league, and had traded Darnell Nurse to San Jose to clear his contract.

The regular season had been sliding for a while: 109 points, then 104, 101 and 93. So the question for bettors is whether last season was a blip, with a tired, banged-up team and bad goaltending, or the next step down a slope.

Our answer sits in between. On process, Edmonton was better than its 93 points: a top-ten team once luck is stripped out, sunk by the net. But the summer made the lineup older, the depth is still thin, and the crease is no better on paper. We land on a C+ team, 13th in the league.

That makes us much cooler than the crowd. The books have Edmonton as the third or fourth Cup favorite, and most previews expect an easy path to the playoffs. On the playoffs we agree, because only Vegas rates higher in the Pacific. On contending we do not. The crease is the widely shared worry, and we share it. Babcock reuniting McDavid and Draisaitl on one line is the camp story of the fall. It should make the top line even scarier, and it leaves thin depth to carry the other 40 minutes.

1What last season really was

Edmonton's underlying play was better than its standings finish. The goaltending was worse.

Measured on chances, the Oilers were a top-ten team last season, and their luck-adjusted rating is well above the one their results earned. Nearly all of the gap is in the net. Edmonton finished 25th in goals saved above expected (GSAx: goals a team's goalies allowed, compared with what an average goalie would allow on the same shots), and it got worse after the Jarry trade in December, not better.

That part is not bad luck. Edmonton's goalies have finished below expected in each of the last five seasons, with four different starters. A pattern that long follows the team, so our rating does not hand back the goals the crease cost last season. The skaters' process is the repeatable part, and it is good.

2How the model builds Edmonton's ranking

Our preseason rating starts from how well a team actually played last season, with luck stripped out, and then adds only what has historically carried over from one season to the next.

The starting point is strong. On chances, Edmonton played like a top-ten team last season, clearly better than its 14th-place finish in the standings.

Age pulls it down. Edmonton has the tenth-oldest projected lineup in the league. Ekholm is 36, Hyman 34, Nugent-Hopkins and Connor Murphy 33. Older teams tend to decline, and this group has played more playoff hockey over the last four springs than almost anyone.

The roster is about even. Nurse and Jack Roslovic left. Ryan Shea grades about as well as Nurse, the new depth forwards grade a little above Roslovic, and full seasons of Murphy and Jason Dickinson, both March pickups, add a little more. On our numbers the summer nets out slightly positive, but the depth behind the top six is still the weak spot.

The crease history is the largest push downward. Five straight seasons of below-average goaltending is a trait of this team, and the rating carries it.

Summer moves: in and out

Net: the Oilers turned Nurse's contract into cap room and spent it on depth. On our numbers the swaps roughly even out, and the middle six stays the weak spot. In goal they added two options, and neither projects better than the goalie they already had.

Last season's in-season moves matter too. Jarry and Spencer Stastney arrived in December; Murphy, Dickinson and Colton Dach came from Chicago in March. A full season of Murphy and Dickinson helps the defensive side. Jarry was the move that did not work.

The goalies and the coach barely move it. Andersen does not change our projection of the crease. Babcock earns a small plus, because new coaches get only modest credit in our model: most of a coach's measured effect does not travel with him.

The result is a C+ team, 13th in the league, projected for about 97 points. That puts Edmonton just behind Buffalo and the Rangers and ahead of Detroit and Utah. In the Pacific only Vegas rates higher, which is why the playoffs remain likely even on our number. The sportsbooks sit well above it. Books usually beat preseason models on season totals, so we hold the gap loosely. The first 20 games in goal will tell us more than any summer projection.

Our projected opening-night lineup. Each player shows his 2026-27 grade (A to E, with a 0-100 score: his percentile among NHL regulars at his position), his role and last season's numbers. Goalies are graded the same way against the league's 64 starters and backups.

Reading the lineup

The top line is everyone's problem. McDavid had 48 goals and 138 points and played all 82 games. Draisaitl had 97 points in 65. McDavid grades A+ and Draisaitl A, and Babcock has put them together with Vasily Podkolzin, possibly mostly at home where he controls the matchups. If there is a Hart race, McDavid starts it as the favorite.

The second line leans on Hyman. Zach Hyman scored 31 goals in 58 games and grades A- at 34. Nugent-Hopkins centers him. Isaac Howard, the 2025 Hobey Baker winner, gets the other wing after a quiet first season, and his grade is the weak spot of the top six.

The depth is the question. Trent Frederic centers the third line with Max Jones and Kasperi Kapanen, and Colton Dach centers the fourth. Most of them grade in the D range. This is where Roslovic's and Henrique's minutes went. Savoie's return in late October, after an 18-goal season, is the first real help.

The blue line thins out fast. Bouchard grades A and Ekholm B+, and Bouchard's 95 points put him in the Norris conversation on offense alone. Behind them, Ryan Shea (B) is a steady partner, but Murphy, Walman and Mukhamadullin grade from C down to D+. That second pair will face real minutes every night.

4Who matters most

Every price on Edmonton starts with McDavid and Draisaitl, and the market knows it. The less obvious dependency is the top pair. Ekholm and Bouchard play far more than any other Oilers defensemen, and when either one sits, those minutes go to players a full grade or two lower. At 36, Ekholm is the likeliest to miss games.

For the nightly bet, a missing star forward is obvious. A missing top-pair defenseman is easier to overlook. Check the blue line as closely as the forward lines.

5Goaltending: three goalies, no answer

Edmonton used four goalies last season. Stuart Skinner went to Pittsburgh for Tristan Jarry in December, Connor Ingram took over by spring and started the playoffs, and none of them solved it. This summer the Oilers added two more: Frederik Andersen, fresh off a Cup with Carolina, and Devon Levi from Buffalo. Andersen hurt his knee in an offseason workout and will miss most of October.

The months table tells the Jarry story. After the trade he finished below expected in every full month in Edmonton, worst in March. The common view is that Andersen fixes the crease once healthy: a Cup winner who played for Babcock in Toronto. Our projection disagrees. Andersen grades lowest of the three, and goalies near 37 rarely bounce back. Jarry grades C, close to a league-average projection and the best of the group, despite his ugly half season. Levi grades D+ on a thin NHL record.

Daily Faceoff ranks the tandem 25th; our projection has Edmonton's goaltending 26th, so we agree with the crowd here. Goalie projections carry the widest error of any position, and a hot month from any of the three would move our view. Until then, treat the crease as below average whoever starts, and confirm the starter before you bet.

6Edmonton's system: how they score and defend

Mike Babcock's teams had a clear signature: lots of shots, an average number against, few hits and few blocks. Edmonton's talent fits that style. The question is whether a coach six years removed from the league can fix a defense that allowed the sixth-most goals.

Offense: volume from the right places. Edmonton scored the sixth-most goals, took more shot attempts than most teams, and had the third-highest share of attempts from inside 20 feet. Only one team scored a larger share of its goals on the power play.

Defense: fewer shots, too many goals. Opponents took fewer attempts than against most teams, yet Edmonton allowed the sixth-most goals. Opponents' rebound goals made up the third-highest share in the league. Rebound goals point at the goaltending first and the net-front coverage second.

What it means for scoring. Edmonton's games averaged 6.67 total goals last season: 3.44 for and 3.23 against per game, against a league average of 3.08 per team (6.16 per game). Our team scoring ratings carry that into 2026-27: an eighth-ranked offense, a middle-of-the-pack defense, and one of the six most open matchups in the league. Babcock's high-event style points the same way.

7Special teams

Edmonton had the best power play in the league by goals and by chances created, and the penalty kill was close to the opposite: bottom ten by goals and the most dangerous chances allowed of any team.

How the power play works. McDavid led the league with 51 power-play points and Draisaitl was second with 40, 16 of them goals. Bouchard's point shot keeps defenders honest, Nugent-Hopkins works the middle, and Hyman, with 10 power-play goals, lives at the net front. The unit has played together for years, and it shows.

How the penalty kill works. This is where the summer's changes land. Henrique, Lazar and Nurse, three regular penalty killers, are gone. Murphy, a deadline pickup last March, now gets a full season, and Shea arrives from Pittsburgh; both are defenders whose main job is to block shots and clear the front of the net. Ekholm stays as the veteran presence. The unit allowed the most dangerous chances in the league last season, and Anaheim's power play decided last spring's series.

Dickinson matters here. Jason Dickinson, another March pickup, is projected for the top penalty-kill unit but starts the season with a foot injury. His return adds a forward who kills penalties every night, exactly what the group lost with its departed veterans. His value on the kill is bigger than his point totals suggest.

What to watch. The power play needs no help; the penalty kill needs a lot. If the new defenders keep the chances down, Edmonton's special-teams edge grows. If not, the kill stays the weak link that turns close games against them.

8What would change our view

• The crease in OctoberJarry and Levi carry the first month. A strong start from either would lift the rating faster than anything else on this roster.
• Ekholm at 36The top pair holds the defense together. A long absence would push Edmonton toward the playoff line.
• McDavid and Draisaitl togetherIf Babcock keeps them on one line, watch how the depth lines hold up at even strength. Splitting them spreads the risk.
• The penalty killLast in chances allowed. Any real improvement under Babcock is worth several points.
• Savoie and DickinsonBoth return in October and fill the two biggest holes: middle-six scoring and a defensive center.
• Early-season formThe first 20 to 30 games say less than they seem. Hot and cold starts mostly reflect shooting and goaltending swings.